No more nukes?

Somebody asked me, “Should Japan switch its nukes back on?”  Here's my answer.

It’s such a shame. Geology notwithstanding, Japan should be the ideal place to build nuclear power stations. Few nations have more to gain from nuclear power, and the Japanese values of safety, cleanliness, and attention to detail are exactly what is needed to operate a nuclear power station safely. But it has a cultural Achilles’ heel so severe that the only question still worth asking is: “When, and how are we going to shut these nukes down?”  (Read more...)

The irony of nuclear safety is that high standards breed complacency. “We’ve designed our nuclear plant to be robust against everything we can think of. Therefore, nothing can go possibly go wrong.” The only defence against this kind of thinking is an adversarial regulator, and this is where it all goes wrong.

amakudari (literally “descent from heaven”) is the Japanese name for the practice of bribing senior civil servants with the promise of a lucrative sinecure after retirement. It goes on pretty much openly. That, plus the cultural values of “saving face” (i.e. concealing problems) and “not making waves” (i.e. calling the messenger an irresponsible trouble-maker and shooting him) would make it extremely difficult for a genuine, effective, adversarial regulators to operate. I say “would” rather than “did” because, to its shame, Japan didn’t even bothered to try. Before Fukushima blew up, Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency functioned as a department of the the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, one of whose responsibilities was – promoting nuclear power.

Fukushima was no aberration. It was the most serious in a string of reported accidents (and presumably many more that weren’t), and these reports tell us two things: something was seriously amiss in the safety culture, and lessons were not being learned. For instance, in 1999 three nuclear workers unwittingly caused a “criticality incident” (Wikipedia) when they poured 40 litres of uranium solution into a tank. Two died of radiation injuries, and many more were exposed during the 20 hours it took to finally get the tank under control. The really shocking thing here is how ignorant the three unfortunate workers were – pouring large quantities or uranium solution into tanks is something you just don’t do if you know what you’re dealing with.

There is never a good time for a nuclear disaster, but some times are worse than others. Japan is on the verge of an appalling financial crisis, and the current nuclear shutdown, which forces Japan to import fuel to burn, is not helping matters. So, on balance, I favour a phased shutdown. But I am also half-persuaded by the argument that, without the urgency of an immediate, near-total shutdown, Japan will be unable to overcome the institutional inertia and vested interests that prevent it from making a serious investment renewable energy.